A harsh winter is ahead

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Due to higher fuel prices, the Energy Information Administration is predicting that American households will spend more to heat their homes this winter.

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running news: Looking at winter forecasts, there are reasons to be concerned that parts of the US – not to mention Europe, which is fully hit by an energy crisis, will see significant cold snaps.

big picture: This winter is likely to be another la nina winter, which will be cooler than the mean sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

  • Winters like this are wetter and cooler than average in the Pacific Northwest, colder than usual in the Northern Plains and parts of the Midwest, wetter in the Ohio Valley, and drier in the south.
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yes but: They are also highly volatile from one week to the next.

  • Matt Rogers, co-founder of Commodity Weather Group, told Nerdshala that they are forecasting a warmer-than-average winter in the US and Europe over the past year.
  • Rogers’ group is forecasting about 0.5% higher energy demand for the US this winter, while Europe’s energy demand is up 7% year over year.

During this, Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s top long-range forecaster, keeps his eye on the polar vortex, the low-pressure polar vortex, the high-level swirl over the Arctic. AER meteorologist Judah Cohen does the same.

  • There are indications, Pastelok told Nerdshala, that the vortex could usher in a weaker-than-average winter, which would favor arctic cold shifting south into the Americas and Europe.
  • cohen says However, this may not be the case for the rest of the winter.
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go in: Biden’s Winter Energy Chill

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