A tough reality check ahead of COP26

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A major new report offers a stern warning ahead of a UN climate summit: Yes, clean tech deployment is indeed on the rise, but energy systems are still changing too slowly to rein in global warming.

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running news: The International Energy Agency is out with its big annual World Energy Outlook, 386-page collection of data and analysis.

Here are some big takeaways…

  • Carbon emissions are going far behind. 2021 is on pace to bring the second biggest growth on record as fossil fuel use recovers from the 2020 restrictions and economic slowdown.
  • Current goals will progress. Look at the chart above. If nations meet their current pledges under the Paris Agreement and announce long-term goals, energy-related emissions will drop by 40% by 2050, the IEA projects.
  • But she is also very pink. Pledge and grassroots policies still do not match. Under the current and announced policies, the IEA forecasts global average temperatures to reach an alarming 2.6°C (4.7°F) above pre-industrial levels by 2100 and continue to rise, exceeding the Paris target.
  • a very More investment is required. Going the emissions-cutting route in line with limiting warming to 1.5°C – the most ambitious Paris goal – would mean cutting annual investment in clean energy projects and infrastructure to nearly $4 trillion annually by 2030.
  • It is not okay to procrastinate. Consider this: The IEA estimates that global fossil fuel demand will peak in 2025 if nations implement policies in line with their current pledges and goals. Yet the transition to clean sources is still too slow to meet the Paris goal of limiting temperature rise to “well below”. “2 °C (3.6 °F) compared to pre-industrial levels, and ideally to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F).
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threat level: “The world’s extremely encouraging clean energy momentum is going against the stubborn power of fossil fuels in our energy systems,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.

  • He said the UN summit should provide a “clear and unmistakable signal” that nations are committed to “rapidly enhancing the clean and resilient technologies of the future”.

The report also stated What IEA officials call a huge economic opportunity.

expand chart
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Figures: international energy agency; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Nerdshala

big picture: It estimates the future market size for a subset of key technologies under two scenarios – countries’ existing and announced policies versus energy systems that conform to warming by 1.5 °C.

  • In that net-zero emissions path, the market for five clean technologies is expected to exceed $1 trillion annually by 2050.

What are they saying: “This is comparable in size to the current global oil market. This creates great potential for companies that are well positioned as global supply chains expand,” the IEA said. go in: Carbon emissions rise despite clean energy growth

go in: Carbon emissions rise despite clean energy growth

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