Fossil fuels are forecast to dry up, but not soon enough

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Is the end in sight?

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This decade could see the beginning of the end of the dominance of fossil fuels as a source of energy, according to a new report from an agency set up to protect the world’s oil supply. It is the latest sign that the global energy economy is on the Nerdshala of a dramatic transformation.


The International Energy Agency (IEA) came together in the midst of the oil crisis of the 1970s to monitor global supply and demand and promote cooperation on energy policy. For the first time, its annual World Energy Outlook predicts that oil demand will peak and begin to decline in all future scenarios that the agency investigated – and sees that as a good thing.

In the most optimistic scenario, countries stand by their leaders. Pledges On climate change, overall fossil fuel use – which also includes coal and gas – will peak around 2025 and begin to decline shortly thereafter. In the most pessimistic scenario, that only takes into account the existing policies On climate change, fossil fuel use is likely to stabilize over the next few decades.

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“We are at the cusp of a new era,” said Mark Campanale, founder and executive chairman of the Carbon Tracker Initiative, a London-based non-profit think tank. Statement Reaction to the IEA’s new approach. in it’s own AnalysisCarbon Tracker predicts that demand for all fossil fuels will peak this decade as renewable energy becomes cheaper and economies try to tackle climate change.

The pace of the energy transition, however, is still too slow to keep the climate crisis at a level that humans can better cope with. Greenhouse gas emissions globally need to be essentially eliminated by around 2050, according to chief climate scientistTo prevent global warming from crossing 1.5°C. the world has already arrived 1.2 degrees Celsius is warming, and we are seeing more devastating storms, floods, heatwaves, fires and droughts as a result. Scientists estimate that breaking the 1.5 degree level will make the situation worse.

over fifty countries The world has pledged to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by the middle of the century. Even with its commitments, global carbon dioxide emissions will drop by about 40 percent by 2050, the IEA found, which is needed to keep them limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

One drawback that more progressive environmental activists have found with net zero goals is that they may not aim to reach the goal. Pure zero emission. Instead, net zero pledges allow polluters to continue burning fossil fuels as long as they attempt to cancel some of their emissions by turning to unreliable carbon offsets and still-unproven technologies that capture CO2.

“The world’s extremely encouraging clean energy momentum is going against the stubborn power of fossil fuels in our energy systems,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement. Statement Today.

Furthermore, the most optimistic scenario drawn by the IEA assumes that world leaders will only be able to make good on climate promises. The problem is that the world’s biggest polluters, China and the US, There are no actual laws yet Reaching net zero to mandate reductions in fossil fuel pollution.

The IEA published the Energy Outlook today, a “handbook” for global climate talks starting at the end of the month. The UN climate summit, called COP26, marks the deadline for countries to increase their carbon-reduction commitments, five years after the adoption of the historic Paris Agreement. There should be no new investment in any new fossil fuel projects if the world is to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and prevent global warming of more than 1.5°C, the IEA has taken in another important step. report good in May.

“Governments, businesses, industry groups and investors rely on analysis by the IEA to guide their energy decisions. They have the power to influence key stakeholders, and we are counting on them to do so,” May Bowe, Executive Director of the International Environmental Organization, said in a statement today.

There are hundreds of protesters led by indigenous activists rallying in Washington, D.C. this week to demand not only a halt to new fossil fuel projects, or an emphasis on “net zero” pledges, but to stop fossil fuel drilling in the first place.

“[The IEA] The report is an important milestone that hopefully sends a message ahead of these important climate talks, but net-zero is not enough,” Bowe said.

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