Reddit is introducing a new way to post in its communities today with the launch of an on-platform feature called “Predictions.” Taking off from a popular Reddit poll, the predictions are asking users to “Who will win the game tomorrow?” Like allows guessing the answers to the questions on time. or “Which character will meet his fate in the next episode?” or “How much will the price of bitcoin rise by Monday?” among others.
It’s the first new posting format that Reddit has introduced in nearly two years, and the company says is designed to increase engagement on the platform by lowering the posting barrier. That is, while some users may not feel comfortable posting publicly or engaging in discussions, they may take longer to respond to a poll or make a prediction.
To use the feature in the Reddit community, or subreddit, a moderator will first create a prediction tournament. This is a series of questions where Reddit users will predict the answer. Tournaments can include as many questions as moderators want, and they can continue to add new questions after the tournament begins.
Each Reddit user receives 1,000 tokens when they join the Prediction Tournament. These are free – Reddit says there is no monetization model for the token, nor does it have any plans to introduce one in the future. However, once 1,000 is used up, users will not be able to acquire more tokens during the tournament. This means they have to place their bets on all predictions wisely, or they risk losing their ability to answer subsequent questions if they are exhausted.
Users can place anywhere from 10 to 100 tokens on each question, but no more or less.
The moderators will choose the correct answers to the predictions, so they control the outcome of the tournament and decide the winners. Of course, they are motivated to have this right as a community leader – and because there is no financial benefit to them in any way. Furthermore, the token has no value outside of prediction tournaments, says Reddit.
Users who were correct in their predictions will earn more tokens based on how many tokens they originally put in. This means that the better one’s prediction skills are, the more likely they are to bet in the future. They will also climb higher on the community prediction tournament leaderboard.
Reddit is already testing the feature ahead of today’s official launch and more than 1 million participants have found themselves in the Prediction Tournament. Popular tournaments included the Oscar Prediction Tournament on r/movies with 100,000 participants; Azerbaijan Grand Prix prediction tournament on r/formula1, in which 200,000 participants took part; and the 2020 Eurocup prediction tournament on r/soccer, with over 300,000 participants.
The company isn’t the first to see value in predictions as a tool for user engagement.
Facebook’s internal R&D lab, the NPE team, last year introduced an app called Forecast, which offered a similar set of capabilities. In Forecast, users can make predictions about world events like COVID-19 and engage in discussions. Since then, the company has announced its entry into the fantasy gaming market, but with a twist. Instead of building all-star fantasy teams, users make simple predictions about the game themselves. There are also non-sports games that allow you to guess what will happen on a TV show like “Survivor” or “The Bachelorette.”
Elsewhere on the App Store, there are many apps for making predictions with friends, often focused on sports. And on social media, there are Stories filters for personalized predictions and other prediction games. For example, wishbone app maker Mammoth Media last year launched A snap mini game called Prediction Master for Snapchat users.
Reddit says the new feature will apply to all communities with at least 10,000 members that are rated as safe for work.